AZ U19 1-0 Manchester City U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
29%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.36
2-3 Goals
35%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.79
6+ Goals
13%
7.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.55
1/2
6%
24.65
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
18%
5.9
X/2
10%
5.94
X/X
18%
5.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.2
2/2
13%
3.59
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.2 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.9pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.8pp
29%
Away Win
37%
-7.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ U19 EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City U19 EU Bookmakers 40%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.57/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.30
-16% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +43%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
242 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.5
9.1 Crosses 11.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ U19
1-0
AWAY Manchester City U19
0.56 xG 2.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 12
308 Passes 317
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 37
4 Crosses 34
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ U19 vs Manchester City U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ U19 squeezed past Manchester City U19 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; AZ U19 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, AZ U19 had 48% of the ball to Manchester City U19's 52%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.56 to 2.28 — on chances, Manchester City U19 could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of AZ U19 vs Manchester City U19?

AZ U19 1-0 Manchester City U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ U19 vs Manchester City U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AZ U19 40%, draw 31%, Manchester City U19 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ U19) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ U19) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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