Lexington vs Louisville City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lexington v Louisville City — Team-Based Signals
Lexington vs Louisville City Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
Lexington 0-2 Louisville City — Actual Match Statistics
Louisville City got the better of Lexington 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Lexington at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lexington had 63% of the ball to Louisville City's 37%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.36 to 1.80.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lexington and 2.00 for Louisville City.
What was the final score of Lexington vs Louisville City?
Lexington 0-2 Louisville City in the USA - Open Cup on 02/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lexington vs Louisville City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lexington 43%, draw 25%, Louisville City 31%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.