Samtredia 0-3 Saburtalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 2 May 2024

📅02/05/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
56%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
6%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
40%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.1pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.6pp
56%
Away Win
67%
-10.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samtredia EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 71%
-9% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.98/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/0.81
+0% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samtredia
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Saburtalo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Saburtalo 2-2 HT 1-1 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
03.11.2023 Saburtalo 0-0 HT 0-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
26.08.2023 Samtredia Samtredia 0-0 HT 0-0 Saburtalo GUR
14.05.2023 Saburtalo 2-0 HT 0-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
04.12.2021 Saburtalo 5-1 HT 1-1 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
29.09.2021 Samtredia Samtredia 0-2 HT 0-2 Saburtalo GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samtredia
0-3
AWAY Saburtalo
46% Ball Possession 54%
1 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Samtredia vs Saburtalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo swept aside Samtredia 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Saburtalo as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Samtredia had 46% of the ball to Saburtalo's 54%, shots finished 1-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Samtredia and 1.83 for Saburtalo.

What was the final score of Samtredia vs Saburtalo?

Samtredia 0-3 Saburtalo in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 02/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samtredia vs Saburtalo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Samtredia 21%, draw 23%, Saburtalo 56%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saburtalo), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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