Saburtalo 2-2 Samtredia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
28%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
63%
-16.8pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.8pp
28%
Away Win
16%
+12.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.9pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Samtredia EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
2.03/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.44
-4% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +35%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
410 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saburtalo
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Samtredia
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.11.2023 Saburtalo 0-0 HT 0-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
26.08.2023 Samtredia Samtredia 0-0 HT 0-0 Saburtalo GUR
14.05.2023 Saburtalo 2-0 HT 0-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
04.12.2021 Saburtalo 5-1 HT 1-1 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
29.09.2021 Samtredia Samtredia 0-2 HT 0-2 Saburtalo GUR
19.06.2021 Saburtalo 4-0 HT 2-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saburtalo
2-2
AWAY Samtredia
66% Ball Possession 34%
27 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Saburtalo vs Samtredia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo and Samtredia couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Saburtalo at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Saburtalo had 66% of the ball to Samtredia's 34%, shots finished 27-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Saburtalo and 0.17 for Samtredia.

What was the final score of Saburtalo vs Samtredia?

Saburtalo 2-2 Samtredia in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saburtalo vs Samtredia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Saburtalo 46%, draw 26%, Samtredia 28%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Saburtalo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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