Newcastle United 3-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
2.96
6+ Goals
10%
9.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.79
1/2
7%
24.8
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
17%
6.05
X/2
11%
5.68
X/X
14%
5.1
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
17%
3.43
2/X
6%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.8pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 42%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.69/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.25
+26% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
19.0 Crosses 18.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.07 xG 0.96
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
379 Passes 376
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.10.2025 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
04.05.2025 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.10.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
11.05.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
02.09.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
18.05.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-1 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
3-1
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
3.16 xG 1.53
32% Ball Possession 68%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 10
164 Passes 426
69% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 38
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United beat Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Newcastle United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Newcastle United had 32% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 68%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 3.16 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Newcastle United and 1.50 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Newcastle United 3-1 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 38%, draw 26%, Brighton & Hove Albion 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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