Sturt Lions 2-3 Adelaide United II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 2 May 2026

Sturt Lions
2-3 HT 1-2
Adelaide United II
📅02/05/2026 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Australia - National Premier League – 2026

Sturt Lions vs Adelaide United II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.38
No
42%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.8pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.2pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-5.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.9pp
42%
BTTS No
32%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturt Lions v Adelaide United II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturt Lions EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United II EU Bookmakers 53%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.36/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/2.01
-6% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -37%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
281 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Sturt Lions vs Adelaide United II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturt Lions
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Adelaide United II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
11.06.2023 Adelaide United II Adelaide United II 1-4 HT 1-2 Sturt Lions Sturt Lions AVNPL
25.03.2023 Sturt Lions Sturt Lions 1-4 HT 1-2 Adelaide United II Adelaide United II AVNPL
28.05.2022 Sturt Lions Sturt Lions 1-1 HT 1-0 Adelaide United II Adelaide United II AVNPL
19.02.2022 Adelaide United II Adelaide United II 1-3 HT 0-2 Sturt Lions Sturt Lions AVNPL
14.08.2021 Sturt Lions Sturt Lions 2-1 HT 0-1 Adelaide United II Adelaide United II AVNPL
30.05.2021 Adelaide United II Adelaide United II 3-1 HT 2-1 Sturt Lions Sturt Lions AVNPL
POST-MATCH Sturt Lions vs Adelaide United II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United II edged past Sturt Lions 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Adelaide United II as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturt Lions had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sturt Lions and 1.83 for Adelaide United II.

What was the final score of Sturt Lions vs Adelaide United II?

Sturt Lions 2-3 Adelaide United II in the Australia - National Premier League on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturt Lions vs Adelaide United II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Adelaide United II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sturt Lions 30%, draw 26%, Adelaide United II 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Adelaide United II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Adelaide United II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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