Chapecoense 1-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 2 Jun 2024

📅02/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.35
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.14
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.2pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.21/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.11
-23% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
24.4 Crosses 15.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
0.67 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
326 Passes 341
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
01.10.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
07.06.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
30.08.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-2 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
20.05.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
1-1
AWAY Vila Nova
0.94 xG 1.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
277 Passes 240
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense and Vila Nova shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Chapecoense at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Chapecoense had 54% of the ball to Vila Nova's 46%, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 0.94 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Chapecoense and 0.75 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Vila Nova?

Chapecoense 1-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 44%, draw 29%, Vila Nova 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chapecoense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
2 Jun 2024
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