Excelsior 4-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 Jun 2024

Excelsior
4-1 HT 3-0
NAC Breda
📅02/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Excelsior vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
3.17
Over 2.5
55%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.32
No
48%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
8.62
2-3 Goals
42%
2.38
4-5 Goals
25%
2.37
6+ Goals
12%
3.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.23
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
12%
5.0
X/2
6%
9.26
X/X
14%
6.95
2/1
7%
18.2
2/2
12%
5.21
2/X
5%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.6pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.1pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
28%
+16.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
72%
-16.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
72%
-19.9pp
48%
BTTS No
28%
+19.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +9%
2.25/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.28
+64% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
22.3 Crosses 18.9
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Excelsior vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
1W-1D-4L
AWAY NAC Breda
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.83 xG 2.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
317 Passes 345
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.05.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 6-2 HT 3-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
22.07.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HAZ
06.05.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
01.10.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-1 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
23.04.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
03.01.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 0-3 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2

Excelsior 4-1 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
4-1
AWAY NAC Breda
3.02 xG 0.47
69% Ball Possession 31%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
499 Passes 182
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
42 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior ran out comfortable winners over NAC Breda 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Excelsior had 69% of the ball to NAC Breda's 31%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 3.02 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Excelsior and 3.00 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs NAC Breda?

Excelsior 4-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 48%, draw 26%, NAC Breda 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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