Palmeiras 2-0 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Jul 2024

📅02/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.51
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 28% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.02
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.85
X/1
20%
3.77
X/2
10%
10.65
X/X
8%
5.39
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
10%
8.43
2/X
8%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
2.06/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.36
+7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
25.9 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Corinthians
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.01 xG 0.47
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
323 Passes 312
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.02.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-2 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU
03.09.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
30.04.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
17.02.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 2-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BREPAU
14.08.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
24.04.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-0
AWAY Corinthians
0.99 xG 0.84
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
230 Passes 244
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras saw off Corinthians 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 49% of the ball to Corinthians's 51%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 0.99 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Palmeiras and 0.83 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Palmeiras 2-0 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 49%, draw 25%, Corinthians 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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