Santos 1-0 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 2 Jul 2024

📅02/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 30% vs market 24.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-12.2pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.2pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.4pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 15%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +3%
1.38/0.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.43
+62% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +63%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.1
22.4 Crosses 14.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.58 xG 0.62
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
359 Passes 288
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.11.2021 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
02.08.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
02.12.2019 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
01.09.2019 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
13.11.2018 Santos Santos 0-1 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
23.07.2018 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
1-0
AWAY Chapecoense
1.27 xG 0.78
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 22
11 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 7
408 Passes 265
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 17
36 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Santos vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos squeezed past Chapecoense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Santos had 58% of the ball to Chapecoense's 42%, shots finished 24-22, expected goals 1.27 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santos and 0.17 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Santos vs Chapecoense?

Santos 1-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 02/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Santos 54%, draw 27%, Chapecoense 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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