Araz Nahçıvan 1-4 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 2 Aug 2024

Araz Nahçıvan
1-4 HT 0-2
Karabağ
📅02/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2024/2025

Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.4
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
59%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.85
No
60%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
15%
+4.9pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.4pp
59%
Away Win
66%
-6.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
50%
-9.8pp
60%
BTTS No
50%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Araz Nahçıvan v Karabağ — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 70%
+70% / +70% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
1.68/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.65
+111% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -33%
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
246 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.1

Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Karabağ
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
8 Corners 6
The Meetings
23.01.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
30.10.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 2-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-1 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ swept aside Araz Nahçıvan 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 2.00 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ?

Araz Nahçıvan 1-4 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 20%, draw 21%, Karabağ 59%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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