Karabağ 3-1 Araz Nahçıvan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 23 Jan 2024

📅23/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.25
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
76%
-10.9pp
19%
Draw
16%
+3.6pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 11%
-6% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.71/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.49
+39% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +46%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
6 Corners 8
30.10.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 2-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-1 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Araz Nahçıvan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ saw off Araz Nahçıvan 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Karabağ and 1.50 for Araz Nahçıvan.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Karabağ 3-1 Araz Nahçıvan in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 65%, draw 19%, Araz Nahçıvan 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
23 Jan 2024
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