Aveley 3-1 Dorking Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 2 Sep 2024

📅02/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.87
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.77
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 26% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+4.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-5.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aveley EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Dorking Wanderers EU Bookmakers 57%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -25%
0.39/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.37
-68% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -25%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aveley
3-1
AWAY Dorking Wanderers
29% Ball Possession 71%
9 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aveley vs Dorking Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aveley got the better of Dorking Wanderers 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dorking Wanderers at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Aveley had 29% of the ball to Dorking Wanderers's 71%, shots finished 9-22.

What was the final score of Aveley vs Dorking Wanderers?

Aveley 3-1 Dorking Wanderers in the England - Conference on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aveley vs Dorking Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dorking Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Aveley 27%, draw 26%, Dorking Wanderers 47%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dorking Wanderers) ✗ Under 2.5
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