Hemel Hempstead Town 4-2 Welling United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 2 Sep 2024

Hemel Hempstead Town
4-2 HT 1-0
Welling United
📅02/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Conference – 2024/2025

Hemel Hempstead Town vs Welling United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.94
6+ Goals
8%
17.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 29% vs market 28.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hemel Hempstead Town v Welling United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Welling United EU Bookmakers 27%
-21% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +2%
1.55/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.37
-7% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Hemel Hempstead Town vs Welling United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Welling United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
12.08.2023 Welling United Welling United 0-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
28.02.2023 Welling United Welling United 0-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
20.08.2022 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 2-3 HT 2-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
26.02.2022 Welling United Welling United 1-2 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
23.10.2021 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Welling United Welling United İCON

Hemel Hempstead Town 4-2 Welling United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
4-2
AWAY Welling United
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Welling United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hemel Hempstead Town beat Welling United 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hemel Hempstead Town as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Hemel Hempstead Town had 49% of the ball to Welling United's 51%, shots finished 13-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hemel Hempstead Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.17 for Welling United.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Welling United?

Hemel Hempstead Town 4-2 Welling United in the England - Conference on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Welling United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hemel Hempstead Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 44%, draw 26%, Welling United 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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