Salford City 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 2 Sep 2024

📅02/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.27 — our 26% vs market 18.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.93
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
5%
12.95
X/1
11%
7.37
X/2
13%
4.79
X/X
16%
5.21
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
20%
2.69
2/X
5%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+4.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.3pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salford City EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 50%
-8% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.10/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.28
-11% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -32%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
274 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
19.3 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salford City
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
1.29 xG 1.11
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
214 Passes 350
68% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 HT 3-1 Salford City Salford City İN2
25.11.2023 Salford City Salford City 2-4 HT 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salford City
1-0
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.12 xG 1.16
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
355 Passes 421
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Salford City vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salford City squeezed past Milton Keynes Dons 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Milton Keynes Dons at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Salford City had 47% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 53%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.12 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Salford City and 3.50 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Salford City vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Salford City 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salford City vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Salford City 32%, draw 26%, Milton Keynes Dons 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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