Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Salford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.98
4-5 Goals
25%
2.69
6+ Goals
13%
6.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.28
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
14%
4.52
X/2
7%
8.79
X/X
12%
6.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.35
2/2
15%
5.71
2/X
8%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-5.4pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.8pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Salford City EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +35%
1.40/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.31
-7% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
376 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
16.6 Crosses 18.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Salford City
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.55 xG 1.69
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
467 Passes 247
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Salford City Salford City 2-4 HT 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3-1
AWAY Salford City
0.68 xG 0.90
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
233 Passes 181
66% Pass Accuracy 62%
9 Box Touches 26
8 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Salford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons saw off Salford City 3-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 53% of the ball to Salford City's 47%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.68 to 0.90.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Salford City?

Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Salford City in the England - 2nd Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Salford City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 47%, draw 25%, Salford City 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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