Sutton United 1-1 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.53
6+ Goals
9%
13.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.35
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
12%
5.14
X/2
14%
5.94
X/X
9%
4.64
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.12
2/X EV+ ✓
11%
13.2
Value flag · 2/X at 13.2 — our 11% vs market 4.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sutton United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.24/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.33
-12% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
268 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 63%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
19.3 Crosses 21.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sutton United
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Grimsby Town
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.72 xG 0.81
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
151 Passes 215
53% Pass Accuracy 59%
23 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
14.03.2023 Sutton United Sutton United 0-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
20.08.2022 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sutton United
1-1
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.44 xG 1.49
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
168 Passes 129
64% Pass Accuracy 52%
16 Box Touches 31
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sutton United vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sutton United and Grimsby Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sutton United had 53% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 47%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.44 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Sutton United and 0.67 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Sutton United vs Grimsby Town?

Sutton United 1-1 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sutton United vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sutton United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sutton United 40%, draw 27%, Grimsby Town 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sutton United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sutton United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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