Harrogate Town 1-2 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 9 Mar 2024

Harrogate Town
1-2 HT 1-0
Crawley Town
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 29% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.13
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
11%
6.17
X/2
17%
5.15
X/X
13%
4.9
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
17%
3.22
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
40%
Away Win
40%
-0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.1pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Harrogate Town v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -20%
1.39/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/0.92
-5% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -39%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
252 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 68%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
18.3 Crosses 22.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.44 xG 1.14
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
265 Passes 249
65% Pass Accuracy 64%
23 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
11.03.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
13.08.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
08.02.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-3 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
21.09.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-2 HT 2-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
06.02.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-3 HT 0-3 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2

Harrogate Town 1-2 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
1-2
AWAY Crawley Town
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
245 Passes 275
64% Pass Accuracy 69%
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town nicked a narrow win over Harrogate Town 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Crawley Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 49% of the ball to Crawley Town's 51%, shots finished 17-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crawley Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Harrogate Town and 1.83 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?

Harrogate Town 1-2 Crawley Town in the England - 2nd Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 31%, draw 28%, Crawley Town 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crawley Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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