Emelec 2-1 Orense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 2 Sep 2024

Emelec
2-1 HT 0-1
Orense
📅02/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Emelec vs Orense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.46
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.1pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Emelec v Orense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emelec EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Orense EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
1.22/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.10
-17% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +54%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
17.6 Crosses 14.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0

Emelec vs Orense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emelec
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Orense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.81 xG 1.17
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
317 Passes 195
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
14 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.03.2024 Orense Orense 1-1 HT 0-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
13.08.2023 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
06.03.2023 Orense Orense 2-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
10.10.2022 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
15.05.2022 Orense Orense 2-0 HT 2-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
16.10.2021 Emelec Emelec 1-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1

Emelec 2-1 Orense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emelec
2-1
AWAY Orense
0.88 xG 0.20
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 3
323 Passes 260
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Emelec vs Orense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emelec edged past Orense 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Emelec as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Emelec had 55% of the ball to Orense's 45%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.88 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orense led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Emelec and 0.83 for Orense.

What was the final score of Emelec vs Orense?

Emelec 2-1 Orense in the Ecuador - Premier on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emelec vs Orense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Emelec 41%, draw 30%, Orense 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Emelec) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Emelec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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