Başakşehir FK 1-2 Rapid Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 2 Oct 2024

📅02/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.9
Over
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.35
2-3
43%
1.79
4-5
22%
3.53
6+
11%
13.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.44
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
5%
13.55
X/1
16%
5.16
X/2
10%
5.69
X/X
15%
4.78
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
14%
3.94
2/X
6%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 38%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
0.69/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.31/1.08
-32% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
18.0 Crosses 10.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 4.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
1-2
AWAY Rapid Wien
0.79 xG 1.51
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
405 Passes 333
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Rapid Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rapid Wien nicked a narrow win over Başakşehir FK 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Başakşehir FK at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 53% of the ball to Rapid Wien's 47%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 0.79 to 1.51.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Rapid Wien?

Başakşehir FK 1-2 Rapid Wien in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Rapid Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 43%, draw 26%, Rapid Wien 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Başakşehir FK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVKL More UEFA Europa Conference League
2 Oct 2024
17:30 Vitoria Guimaraes vs Celje Analysis →