Vitoria Guimaraes vs Celje Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vitoria Guimaraes v Celje — Team-Based Signals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Celje Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Celje
AVKL
3-4
HT 1-2
Vitoria Guimaraes
AVKL
Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 Celje — Actual Match Statistics
Vitoria Guimaraes saw off Celje 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 52% of the ball to Celje's 48%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 3.41 to 0.22.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 2.00 for Celje.
What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Celje?
Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 Celje in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Celje?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 58%, draw 23%, Celje 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.