Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Oct 2024

Cerezo Osaka
1-0 HT 0-0
Gamba Osaka
📅02/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.72
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.3
6+ Goals
9%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 31% vs market 30.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.26
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
17%
5.81
X/2
17%
5.15
X/X
11%
4.0
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.6
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cerezo Osaka v Gamba Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.17/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.29
-1% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.9 Crosses 16.2
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.4

Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.84 xG 1.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
351 Passes 347
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.05.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
28.10.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JLK
03.05.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.03.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
16.07.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Gamba Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-0
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.22 xG 0.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 3
271 Passes 359
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka nicked a narrow win over Gamba Osaka 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Cerezo Osaka made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 45% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 55%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.22 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka?

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 33%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gamba Osaka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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