Gamba Osaka 1-0 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 May 2024

Gamba Osaka
1-0 HT 1-0
Cerezo Osaka
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒07:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.72
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.8
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
4%
13.5
X/1
9%
6.22
X/2
12%
4.9
X/X
21%
3.74
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.4
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+3.1pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.0pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-4.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.4pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gamba Osaka v Cerezo Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.26/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.14
-3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +22%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
17.6 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.8

Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.82 xG 1.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
348 Passes 322
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JLK
03.05.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.03.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
16.07.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
21.05.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-1 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP

Gamba Osaka 1-0 Cerezo Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
1-0
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.33 xG 0.38
35% Ball Possession 65%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 6
238 Passes 500
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka edged past Cerezo Osaka 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 32% / 35% — and on the day Gamba Osaka made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 35% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 65%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.33 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Gamba Osaka 1-0 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 34%, draw 32%, Cerezo Osaka 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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