Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-3 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.67
Over 2.5
53%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.13
No
46%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.66
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
23%
4.41
6+ Goals
11%
22.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.41 — our 23% vs market 17.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.9
X/1
14%
3.49
X/2
11%
10.05
X/X
12%
4.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
12%
8.92
2/X
4%
18.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-10.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-9.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+9.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
43%
+11.0pp
46%
BTTS No
57%
-11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.83/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.15
-3% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 76%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
25.1 Crosses 16.4
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.11 xG 0.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
379 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
20.05.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
26.03.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
17.09.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
28.05.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-3
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.95 xG 1.47
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 0
391 Passes 178
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus squeezed past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 65% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 35%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.95 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.17 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-3 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%, draw 24%, Nagoya Grampus 28%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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