Tokyo Verdy 3-2 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.71
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
16%
4.69
X/2
15%
6.47
X/X
14%
3.8
2/1
11%
31.5
2/2
8%
5.08
2/X
8%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.4pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.7pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.0pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
1.42/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.14
+0% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 76%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
20.0 Crosses 22.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2023 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-1 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
03.05.2023 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
20.07.2022 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-1 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JPK
14.08.2021 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-1 HT 1-1 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
23.05.2021 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-2 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
21.10.2020 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
3-2
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
3.08 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 1
316 Passes 345
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 26
27 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy nicked a narrow win over Jubilo Iwata 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tokyo Verdy as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 48% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 52%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 3.08 to 1.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tokyo Verdy's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jubilo Iwata led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 1.00 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Jubilo Iwata?

Tokyo Verdy 3-2 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 42%, draw 29%, Jubilo Iwata 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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