Adelaide United (K) 2-3 Melbourne Victory (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 2 Nov 2024

Adelaide United (K)
2-3 HT 1-2
Melbourne Victory (K)
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.09
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
58%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
21%
X/X
3%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
16%
+2.9pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.2pp
58%
Away Win
64%
-6.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United (K) v Melbourne Victory (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United (K) EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 69%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.96/2.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.62
-77% / -69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -55%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
264 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 476 · 85%
14.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
16.2 Crosses 17.2
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United (K)
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.01 xG 1.45
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
251 Passes 343
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 1-4 HT 0-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
04.11.2023 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
21.12.2018 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 3-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
28.10.2018 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW

Adelaide United (K) 2-3 Melbourne Victory (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United (K)
2-3
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
2.16 xG 1.55
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 4
301 Passes 245
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) edged past Adelaide United (K) 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melbourne Victory (K) as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United (K) had 51% of the ball to Melbourne Victory (K)'s 49%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.16 to 1.55 — the balance of chances actually favoured Adelaide United (K).

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory (K) led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Adelaide United (K) and 2.00 for Melbourne Victory (K).

What was the final score of Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Adelaide United (K) 2-3 Melbourne Victory (K) in the Australia - W-League on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United (K) 19%, draw 23%, Melbourne Victory (K) 58%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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