Velez Sarsfield 1-0 CA Sarmiento — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 2 Dec 2024

Velez Sarsfield
1-0 HT 1-0
CA Sarmiento
📅02/12/2024 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Velez Sarsfield vs CA Sarmiento Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.33
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 31% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.63
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
22.55
X/1
19%
3.31
X/2
5%
17.9
X/X
11%
6.19
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
7%
15.95
2/X
8%
23.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS No — 61% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-12.9pp
26%
Draw
19%
+6.8pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.9pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Velez Sarsfield v CA Sarmiento — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 14%
-9% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.33/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.50
-16% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +13%
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
428 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 202 · 67%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
24.0 Crosses 13.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9

Velez Sarsfield vs CA Sarmiento Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
3W-2D-1L
AWAY CA Sarmiento
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.68 xG 0.85
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
407 Passes 196
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
28 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.07.2023 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-1 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
23.08.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-1 HT 0-1 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
25.09.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-1 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
21.02.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-2 HT 0-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
18.06.2017 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 5-1 HT 2-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
09.02.2016 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ

Velez Sarsfield 1-0 CA Sarmiento — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
1-0
AWAY CA Sarmiento
2.33 xG 0.13
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 0
334 Passes 160
76% Pass Accuracy 60%
36 Box Touches 5
27 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs CA Sarmiento
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield squeezed past CA Sarmiento 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Velez Sarsfield as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 63% of the ball to CA Sarmiento's 37%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.33 to 0.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Velez Sarsfield's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Velez Sarsfield had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.83 for CA Sarmiento.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs CA Sarmiento?

Velez Sarsfield 1-0 CA Sarmiento in the Argentina - Premier League on 02/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs CA Sarmiento?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 58%, draw 26%, CA Sarmiento 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Sarsfield), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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