Boca Juniors 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 2 Dec 2024

Boca Juniors
1-0 HT 1-0
Gimnasia La Plata
📅02/12/2024 · 🕒03:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
62%
1.64
Over 2.5
38%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
4.55
6+ Goals
8%
24.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 34% vs market 32.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.24
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.0
X/1
14%
3.77
X/2
9%
10.05
X/X
14%
4.34
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
7%
8.81
2/X
8%
17.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.8pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.6pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.7pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Boca Juniors v Gimnasia La Plata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.59/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.32
+15% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +1%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 67%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
23.2 Crosses 17.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8

Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boca Juniors
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 1.02
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
396 Passes 187
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.10.2024 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 1-1 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJK
16.07.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-3 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
20.10.2022 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-2 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
31.10.2021 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 0-1 HT 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
15.02.2021 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 2-2 HT 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
08.03.2020 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 1-0 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ

Boca Juniors 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boca Juniors
1-0
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
2.14 xG 0.22
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
331 Passes 241
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boca Juniors nicked a narrow win over Gimnasia La Plata 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Boca Juniors as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Boca Juniors had 57% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 43%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 2.14 to 0.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Boca Juniors's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Boca Juniors had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.00 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Boca Juniors 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 02/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 47%, draw 31%, Gimnasia La Plata 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boca Juniors), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Boca Juniors) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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