Smorgon 1-0 Dinamo Minsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 2 Dec 2024

📅02/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
47%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 28% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
24%
-0.4pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.3pp
47%
Away Win
52%
-4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Minsk EU Bookmakers 56%
+18% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +15%
1.12/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.91
+1% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
279 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Dinamo Minsk
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.03.2024 Dinamo Minsk Dinamo Minsk 5-0 HT 4-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
11.11.2023 Dinamo Minsk Dinamo Minsk 7-0 HT 4-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
25.06.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 3-1 HT 2-1 Dinamo Minsk Dinamo Minsk BLR
26.09.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 0-5 HT 0-3 Dinamo Minsk Dinamo Minsk BLR
14.05.2021 Dinamo Minsk Dinamo Minsk 2-0 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
1-0
AWAY Dinamo Minsk
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs Dinamo Minsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon edged past Dinamo Minsk 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Minsk at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Smorgon had 44% of the ball to Dinamo Minsk's 56%, shots finished 6-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Dinamo Minsk led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Smorgon and 4.00 for Dinamo Minsk.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs Dinamo Minsk?

Smorgon 1-0 Dinamo Minsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 02/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs Dinamo Minsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Minsk win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 23%, draw 30%, Dinamo Minsk 47%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Dinamo Minsk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Minsk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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