AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 Dec 2024

📅02/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.61
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.39
No
44%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.0
2-3 Goals
35%
2.08
4-5 Goals
26%
2.61
6+ Goals
15%
5.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.87
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
9%
5.4
X/2
16%
6.97
X/X
15%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.7
2/2
13%
4.09
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-11.3pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.57/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.60
+14% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
10.8 Crosses 14.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
3W-0D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.76 xG 1.61
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
430 Passes 341
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 HT 1-2 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
01.12.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 4-0 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
28.04.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-3 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
08.08.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.03.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
05.11.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2-3
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.93 xG 1.17
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 6
500 Passes 229
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht edged past AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day MVV Maastricht made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 64% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 36%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.93 to 1.17 — the balance of chances actually favoured AZ Alkmaar II.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 2.00 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs MVV Maastricht?

AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 38%, draw 27%, MVV Maastricht 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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