AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 May 2024

AZ Alkmaar II
2-3 HT 1-2
MVV Maastricht
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

AZ Alkmaar II vs MVV Maastricht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
28%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.35
No
41%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.91
2-3 Goals
38%
2.06
4-5 Goals
30%
2.59
6+ Goals
13%
5.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.38
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
5%
13.55
X/1
14%
4.66
X/2
9%
8.1
X/X
11%
6.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.8
2/2
13%
5.02
2/X
7%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
45%
+4.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
32%
-3.7pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.0pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.0pp
59%
BTTS Yes
70%
-11.4pp
41%
BTTS No
30%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar II v MVV Maastricht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.56/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.45
+11% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
10.5 Crosses 13.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

AZ Alkmaar II vs MVV Maastricht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
3W-0D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.43 xG 1.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
420 Passes 358
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.12.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 4-0 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
28.04.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-3 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
08.08.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.03.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
05.11.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
12.03.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2

AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 MVV Maastricht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2-3
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.61 xG 1.70
69% Ball Possession 31%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
502 Passes 181
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
47 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht squeezed past AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar II at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 69% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 31%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 2.61 to 1.70 — on chances, AZ Alkmaar II could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 2.00 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs MVV Maastricht?

AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 49%, draw 23%, MVV Maastricht 28%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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