Dordrecht 1-1 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 May 2024

Dordrecht
1-1 HT 1-0
Willem II
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Dordrecht vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.16
2-3 Goals
35%
1.96
4-5 Goals
28%
2.73
6+ Goals
11%
6.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.8
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
7%
6.38
X/2
13%
5.57
X/X
9%
5.59
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
19%
3.14
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.2
Value flag · 2/X at 12.2 — our 10% vs market 5.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.2pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dordrecht v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 42%
-5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.31/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.95
-2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +46%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 76%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
17.0 Crosses 20.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Dordrecht vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dordrecht
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Willem II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.85 xG 1.68
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
272 Passes 322
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Box Touches 32
9 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.08.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-0 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
10.02.2023 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 0-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
20.11.2022 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-2 HT 2-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
21.03.2015 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL
28.11.2014 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-4 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL
04.04.2014 Willem II Willem II 3-1 HT 2-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2

Dordrecht 1-1 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dordrecht
1-1
AWAY Willem II
0.77 xG 2.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 12
410 Passes 299
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 38
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dordrecht vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dordrecht and Willem II shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dordrecht had 54% of the ball to Willem II's 46%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.77 to 2.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Dordrecht and 2.33 for Willem II.

What was the final score of Dordrecht vs Willem II?

Dordrecht 1-1 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dordrecht vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dordrecht 35%, draw 27%, Willem II 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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