Telstar 1-1 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
51%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.27
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.99
6+ Goals
8%
9.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.27 — our 25% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
8.96
1/2
8%
21.25
1/X
6%
17.1
X/1
5%
11.9
X/2
13%
3.76
X/X
13%
6.23
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.87
2/X
4%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+6.3pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.1pp
51%
Away Win
59%
-7.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Telstar EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 62%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.34/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.72
+10% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +78%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 82%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
19.1 Crosses 18.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Telstar
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Groningen
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.58 xG 1.46
45% Ball Possession 55%
4 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
251 Passes 348
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
3 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2023 Groningen Groningen 2-0 HT 2-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Telstar
1-1
AWAY Groningen
1.84 xG 0.80
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 11
222 Passes 329
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Telstar vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Telstar and Groningen shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Groningen at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Telstar had 42% of the ball to Groningen's 58%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.84 to 0.80.

What was the final score of Telstar vs Groningen?

Telstar 1-1 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Telstar vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Telstar 25%, draw 24%, Groningen 51%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Groningen)
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