NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.14
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
10%
5.11
X/2
13%
6.23
X/X
11%
5.09
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
16%
4.13
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 34%
-11% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +13%
1.08/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.09
-22% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +35%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 76%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
19.5 Crosses 19.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
0W-0D-6L
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.11 xG 1.44
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
337 Passes 270
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.12.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 3-1 HT 3-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
03.02.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-1 HT 2-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
14.10.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 1-2 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
14.05.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
10.05.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 0-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
17.12.2021 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 4-1 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
2-2
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.72 xG 1.51
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
373 Passes 204
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 62% of the ball to ADO Den Haag's 38%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.72 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ADO Den Haag led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NAC Breda and 2.50 for ADO Den Haag.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?

NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 39%, draw 24%, ADO Den Haag 37%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NAC Breda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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