VVV-Venlo 2-0 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.86
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
14%
7.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.31
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.5
X/2
13%
8.75
X/X
10%
5.71
2/1
6%
21.05
2/2
9%
5.83
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.3pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 29%
-12% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.51/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.64
-20% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 81%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
24.0 Crosses 12.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Ajax II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.41 xG 1.89
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
262 Passes 459
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 3-0 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
28.04.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
24.10.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
25.04.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 6-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
05.11.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-3 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
28.04.2017 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-4 HT 0-3 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
2-0
AWAY Ajax II
0.88 xG 0.69
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
353 Passes 349
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo got the better of Ajax II 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had VVV-Venlo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 52% of the ball to Ajax II's 48%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.88 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for VVV-Venlo and 3.00 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Ajax II?

VVV-Venlo 2-0 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 46%, draw 24%, Ajax II 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VVV-Venlo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
3 May 2024
21:00 Roda vs Cambuur Analysis →
21:00 Den Bosch vs Emmen Analysis →
21:00 NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag Analysis →
21:00 Telstar vs Groningen Analysis →
21:00 Dordrecht vs Willem II Analysis →
21:00 Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven Analysis →