Atalanta 3-1 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 3 Jan 2024

📅03/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
25%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.29
Over 2.5
62%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.76
No
42%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.81
2-3 Goals
33%
1.93
4-5 Goals
30%
2.83
6+ Goals
17%
7.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.68
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
17.7
X/1
16%
3.68
X/2
8%
14.45
X/X
8%
6.82
2/1
7%
21.0
2/2
11%
10.75
2/X
5%
18.25
Value flag · 1/X at 17.7 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-13.4pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.6pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+9.9pp
38%
Under 2.5
40%
-1.6pp
62%
Over 2.5
60%
+1.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.2pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 18%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
3.60/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.90
+69% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
15.8 Crosses 21.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.67 xG 1.01
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
368 Passes 441
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
20.08.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-2 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
04.02.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
15.10.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 2-1 HT 1-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
10.04.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-1 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
21.09.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 2-1 HT 2-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
02.05.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
3-1
AWAY Sassuolo
2.96 xG 0.40
58% Ball Possession 42%
25 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
497 Passes 328
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
43 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta beat Sassuolo 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atalanta had 58% of the ball to Sassuolo's 42%, shots finished 25-10, expected goals 2.96 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atalanta and 1.00 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Atalanta 3-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Cup on 03/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 52%, draw 23%, Sassuolo 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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3 Jan 2024
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