Roma 2-1 Cremonese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 3 Jan 2024

📅03/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.06
No
48%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.35 — our 27% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.65
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
10%
19.85
X/1
19%
3.41
X/2
8%
15.85
X/X
10%
6.1
2/1
9%
24.3
2/2
5%
13.4
2/X
6%
20.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
67%
-10.9pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.2pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+5.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.2pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Cremonese EU Bookmakers 15%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.74/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.62
-24% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +101%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
26.8 Crosses 11.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Cremonese
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.77 xG 1.15
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
418 Passes 250
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.02.2023 Cremonese Cremonese 2-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
01.02.2023 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Cremonese Cremonese İTK
22.08.2022 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
2-1
AWAY Cremonese
4.39 xG 0.39
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
461 Passes 329
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Roma vs Cremonese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma squeezed past Cremonese 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Roma had 57% of the ball to Cremonese's 43%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 4.39 to 0.39 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roma's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cremonese led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Roma and 1.33 for Cremonese.

What was the final score of Roma vs Cremonese?

Roma 2-1 Cremonese in the Italy - Cup on 03/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Cremonese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Roma 56%, draw 26%, Cremonese 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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