Ben Guerdane 5-0 EGS Gafsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Grup A, 3 Jan 2024

Ben Guerdane
5-0 HT 5-0
EGS Gafsa
📅03/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Tunisia - 1st Division Grup A – 2023/2024

Ben Guerdane vs EGS Gafsa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.6
Over 2.5
31%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.16
No
67%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
45%
2.29
2-3 Goals
34%
1.73
4-5 Goals
15%
4.85
6+ Goals
6%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.29 — our 45% vs market 35.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
21%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.4pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.4pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.1pp
69%
Under 2.5
59%
+10.6pp
31%
Over 2.5
41%
-10.6pp
33%
BTTS Yes
42%
-8.7pp
67%
BTTS No
58%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ben Guerdane v EGS Gafsa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ben Guerdane EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 24%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.89/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/0.48
-32% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +78%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Ben Guerdane 5-0 EGS Gafsa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ben Guerdane
5-0
AWAY EGS Gafsa
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ben Guerdane vs EGS Gafsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ben Guerdane swept aside EGS Gafsa 5-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ben Guerdane as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (67%) landed while under 2.5 goals (69%) missed.

On the day, Ben Guerdane had 63% of the ball to EGS Gafsa's 37%, shots finished 12-5.

What was the final score of Ben Guerdane vs EGS Gafsa?

Ben Guerdane 5-0 EGS Gafsa in the Tunisia - 1st Division Grup A on 03/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ben Guerdane vs EGS Gafsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ben Guerdane win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ben Guerdane 45%, draw 32%, EGS Gafsa 23%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ben Guerdane), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ben Guerdane) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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