Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Jan 2025

Valencia
1-2 HT 1-0
Real Madrid
📅03/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
49%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.99 — our 28% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
10.55
1/2
7%
22.1
1/X
6%
18.8
X/1
6%
13.55
X/2
21%
3.65
X/X
11%
6.46
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
1.79
2/X
6%
18.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
15%
+12.4pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
49%
Away Win
64%
-15.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valencia v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 69%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.25/2.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.01
+29% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +6%
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
257 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 508 · 87%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
18.1 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Valencia vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.11 xG 2.20
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
292 Passes 628
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Valencia Valencia 2-2 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
11.11.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-1 HT 2-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
21.05.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
11.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İSSK
08.01.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1

Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
1-2
AWAY Real Madrid
1.31 xG 2.75
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
307 Passes 552
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 31
8 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid edged past Valencia 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Valencia had 38% of the ball to Real Madrid's 62%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.31 to 2.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Real Madrid's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Valencia and 2.33 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Real Madrid?

Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Valencia 28%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ BTTS No
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