Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 2 Mar 2024

Valencia
2-2 HT 2-1
Real Madrid
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
51%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.63
6+ Goals
8%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 29% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.28
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
5%
16.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
12%
10.2
X/2
13%
3.78
X/X
14%
5.07
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
2.09
2/X
5%
15.7
Value flag · X/1 at 10.2 — our 12% vs market 6.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+7.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
51%
Away Win
57%
-6.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valencia v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 61%
+11% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.01/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.11
+14% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +6%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 83%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
20.0 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Valencia vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.06 xG 2.05
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
297 Passes 596
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 34
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-1 HT 2-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
21.05.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
11.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İSSK
08.01.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
19.09.2021 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
2-2
AWAY Real Madrid
1.15 xG 2.21
29% Ball Possession 71%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
227 Passes 668
76% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia and Real Madrid shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valencia had 29% of the ball to Real Madrid's 71%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.15 to 2.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Valencia and 2.33 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Real Madrid?

Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Valencia 26%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 51%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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