Vitoria Guimaraes 4-4 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Jan 2025

Vitoria Guimaraes
4-4 HT 1-2
Sporting CP
📅03/01/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.41
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 30% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.53
1/2
9%
24.3
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
6%
7.62
X/2
17%
4.55
X/X
13%
4.87
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.67
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-3.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 51%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.21/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.93
-4% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
273 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 81%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
21.4 Crosses 20.7
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.1

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.71 xG 2.11
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
263 Passes 479
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
09.12.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
24.04.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.11.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.03.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
30.10.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Vitoria Guimaraes 4-4 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
4-4
AWAY Sporting CP
1.75 xG 1.10
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
383 Passes 345
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes and Sporting CP shared the points in a 4-4 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting CP at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 53% of the ball to Sporting CP's 47%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.75 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 2.33 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?

Vitoria Guimaraes 4-4 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 31%, draw 26%, Sporting CP 44%. The final score 4-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ BTTS No
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