Sporting CP 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

Sporting CP
3-0 HT 2-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.25
Draw
17%
5.28
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.63
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.63
6+ Goals
12%
6.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.37
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
27.0
X/1
28%
3.45
X/2
4%
25.5
X/X
7%
9.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.7
2/2
9%
19.4
2/X
5%
26.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
76%
-9.8pp
17%
Draw
16%
+1.4pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.8pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 11%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
2.27/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.95
+9% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +6%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
480 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 72%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
23.7 Crosses 12.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.3

Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.93 xG 0.76
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
476 Passes 242
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
24.04.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.11.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.03.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
30.10.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
20.03.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Sporting CP 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
3-0
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.29 xG 0.26
64% Ball Possession 36%
9 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
578 Passes 304
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 9
12 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP swept aside Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting CP had 64% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 36%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 2.29 to 0.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sporting CP and 0.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Sporting CP 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 66%, draw 17%, Vitoria Guimaraes 17%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
21 Apr 2024
17:30 Chaves vs Estoril Analysis →
17:30 Famalicao vs Portimonense Analysis →
20:00 Casa Pia vs Porto Analysis →