Chaves 2-2 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.09
6+ Goals
10%
19.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.29
1/2
9%
30.0
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
14%
5.93
X/2
10%
5.15
X/X
11%
4.1
2/1
10%
34.0
2/2
20%
3.52
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 42%
+6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.42/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/0.68
+16% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +78%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.2 Crosses 23.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Estoril
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.64 xG 1.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
261 Passes 319
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
10.12.2023 Estoril Estoril 4-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
18.03.2023 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR
01.10.2022 Chaves Chaves 1-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
08.05.2021 Estoril Estoril 1-1 HT 1-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
09.01.2021 Chaves Chaves 0-2 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR2
12.10.2019 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
2-2
AWAY Estoril
1.14 xG 0.98
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
368 Passes 259
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves and Estoril couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Chaves had 58% of the ball to Estoril's 42%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.14 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chaves and 1.33 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Estoril?

Chaves 2-2 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chaves 35%, draw 27%, Estoril 38%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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