Famalicao 2-2 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.45
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.12
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
15%
3.94
X/2
8%
10.2
X/X
12%
5.05
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
12%
8.0
2/X EV+ ✓
10%
15.55
Value flag · 2/X at 15.55 — our 10% vs market 3.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.58/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.54
-8% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
24.3 Crosses 18.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Portimonense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.02 xG 0.86
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 Passes 302
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 5
09.12.2023 Portimonense Portimonense 1-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
24.02.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
04.09.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 1-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
10.04.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 1-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
21.12.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense POK
27.11.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 0-3 HT 0-2 Portimonense Portimonense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
2-2
AWAY Portimonense
1.86 xG 2.49
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 6
248 Passes 288
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 27
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao and Portimonense shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Famalicao at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Famalicao had 48% of the ball to Portimonense's 52%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 1.86 to 2.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Famalicao and 1.17 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Portimonense?

Famalicao 2-2 Portimonense in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 48%, draw 27%, Portimonense 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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