Casa Pia 1-2 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

Casa Pia
1-2 HT 1-1
Porto
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Casa Pia vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
6.35
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
59%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.07
Over 2.5
44%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.99
No
62%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 30% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
13.35
1/2
5%
23.15
1/X
6%
21.45
X/1
8%
16.3
X/2
21%
3.41
X/X
12%
6.75
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
33%
1.62
2/X
5%
20.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
13%
+4.7pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.1pp
59%
Away Win
68%
-8.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.1pp
38%
BTTS Yes
46%
-8.2pp
62%
BTTS No
54%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Casa Pia v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 72%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -9%
0.57/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.81
-7% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +21%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
250 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.2
12.6 Crosses 19.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Casa Pia vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Porto
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.81 xG 2.98
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 6
180 Passes 542
70% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 43
10 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Porto Porto 3-1 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
14.05.2023 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
07.01.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
05.12.2019 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-3 HT 0-0 Porto Porto PORLC

Casa Pia 1-2 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
1-2
AWAY Porto
0.95 xG 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
280 Passes 371
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 38
25 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto squeezed past Casa Pia 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Casa Pia had 45% of the ball to Porto's 55%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 0.95 to 1.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Casa Pia and 2.00 for Porto.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Porto?

Casa Pia 1-2 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 18%, draw 23%, Porto 59%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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