Lugazi Municipal 1-2 BUL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 3 Jan 2025

📅03/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.66
Draw
35%
3.28
Away
28%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.6
No
58%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
22%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
56%
-18.4pp
35%
Draw
27%
+8.0pp
28%
Away Win
17%
+10.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
34%
+8.1pp
58%
BTTS No
66%
-8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY BUL EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugazi Municipal
1-2
AWAY BUL
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lugazi Municipal vs BUL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BUL squeezed past Lugazi Municipal 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 35% / 28%) promised a tight game; BUL found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugazi Municipal had 51% of the ball to BUL's 49%, shots finished 6-14.

What was the final score of Lugazi Municipal vs BUL?

Lugazi Municipal 1-2 BUL in the Uganda - Premier League on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugazi Municipal vs BUL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugazi Municipal win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lugazi Municipal 37%, draw 35%, BUL 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lugazi Municipal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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3 Jan 2025
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