UPDF 0-1 Vipers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 3 Jan 2025

UPDF
0-1 HT 0-1
Vipers
📅03/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
6.35
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
44%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.68
Over 2.5
36%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.4
No
56%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
12%
+16.3pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.8pp
45%
Away Win
66%
-21.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+8.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
38%
+6.7pp
56%
BTTS No
62%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Vipers EU Bookmakers 70%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.32/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/0.34
-59% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +119% / +150%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
217 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Vipers
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.04.2024 Vipers Vipers 2-1 HT 1-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
18.02.2022 UPDF UPDF 1-1 HT 1-0 Vipers Vipers UGA
27.12.2021 Vipers Vipers 7-2 HT 6-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
0-1
AWAY Vipers
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Vipers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vipers nicked a narrow win over UPDF 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vipers as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, UPDF had 61% of the ball to Vipers's 39%, shots finished 15-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Vipers led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for UPDF and 3.33 for Vipers.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Vipers?

UPDF 0-1 Vipers in the Uganda - Premier League on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Vipers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vipers win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split UPDF 29%, draw 27%, Vipers 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vipers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vipers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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