Vipers 2-1 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 5 Apr 2024

Vipers
2-1 HT 1-0
UPDF
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.28
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.6
No
59%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
75%
-11.1pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.0pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+8.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
34%
+6.3pp
59%
BTTS No
66%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vipers EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
2.19/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/5.06
+8% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +101% / -63%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
496 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vipers
1W-1D-0L
AWAY UPDF
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
18.02.2022 UPDF UPDF 1-1 HT 1-0 Vipers Vipers UGA
27.12.2021 Vipers Vipers 7-2 HT 6-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vipers
2-1
AWAY UPDF
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vipers vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vipers nicked a narrow win over UPDF 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vipers as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vipers had 48% of the ball to UPDF's 52%, shots finished 11-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Vipers had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for Vipers and 1.50 for UPDF.

What was the final score of Vipers vs UPDF?

Vipers 2-1 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vipers vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vipers win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Vipers 63%, draw 21%, UPDF 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vipers), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vipers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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