Deportivo Alaves 1-3 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Feb 2024

Deportivo Alaves
1-3 HT 0-1
Barcelona
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Deportivo Alaves vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
45%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
13%
13.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
+0.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
45%
Away Win
49%
-3.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.8pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo Alaves v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 53%
+10% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
1.16/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.06
-2% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -23%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
19.6 Crosses 14.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Deportivo Alaves vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Barcelona
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.89 xG 2.01
26% Ball Possession 74%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
183 Passes 704
69% Pass Accuracy 90%
12 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
23.01.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
30.10.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
13.02.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 5-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
31.10.2020 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-1 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
19.07.2020 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-5 HT 0-3 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Deportivo Alaves 1-3 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1-3
AWAY Barcelona
0.98 xG 1.21
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 5
213 Passes 491
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 20
40 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona saw off Deportivo Alaves 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 36% of the ball to Barcelona's 64%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.98 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 2.50 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Barcelona?

Deportivo Alaves 1-3 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 26%, draw 29%, Barcelona 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
3 Feb 2024
16:00 Valencia vs Almeria Analysis →
18:15 Granada vs Las Palmas Analysis →
23:00 Girona vs Real Sociedad Analysis →