Valencia 2-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Feb 2024

Valencia
2-1 HT 2-0
Almeria
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Valencia vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.72
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.87
6+ Goals
10%
17.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.22
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.15
X/1
17%
3.83
X/2
6%
9.42
X/X
10%
4.69
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
11%
7.72
2/X
6%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
54%
+1.2pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valencia v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -16%
1.47/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.70
-10% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
23.5 Crosses 18.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.1

Valencia vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Almeria
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.31 xG 1.69
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
342 Passes 258
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Almeria Almeria 2-2 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
09.04.2023 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
23.01.2023 Valencia Valencia 2-2 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
23.05.2015 Almeria Almeria 2-3 HT 2-2 Valencia Valencia İS1
17.01.2015 Valencia Valencia 3-2 HT 2-2 Almeria Almeria İS1
27.03.2014 Almeria Almeria 2-2 HT 0-2 Valencia Valencia İS1

Valencia 2-1 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
2-1
AWAY Almeria
1.44 xG 1.94
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 6
274 Passes 320
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia nicked a narrow win over Almeria 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Valencia as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valencia had 48% of the ball to Almeria's 52%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 1.44 to 1.94 — on chances, Almeria could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valencia had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Valencia and 2.00 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Almeria?

Valencia 2-1 Almeria in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Valencia 56%, draw 22%, Almeria 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valencia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valencia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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